Antonio Senzatela: Rocky Road Continues
Antonio Senzatela is a pitcher whose all opponents are happy to face. He has allowed 19 home runs in 108 innings this season. As a result, in 108 innings this season, he’s served up 19 home runs, carrying the 7.00 ERA and only struck out 11.1% of hitters. His K-BB% (strikeouts minus walks) is a weak 3.5%, which means he is ineffective at controlling games.
Some of his struggles, however, are due to bad luck—a .365 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and 64.5% strand rate. Nevertheless, his 5.60 FIP shows that Senzatela is unfinished. The 95 mph fastball he has to lean on doesn’t help either at -15.9 run value in 54.3% of at-bats, for example.
- Against Lefties — CRM = 0%
- Against Righties — whilst better, he does 11 of 19 bombs off RHB
- On the Road — that makes four home runs while at home one
Consistency is another issue: even after giving up at least four runs in 14 of his 22 starts, Senzatela has managed only the two wins. In his last appearance, again vs Pittsburgh, he gave up eight earned runs in less than one inning. However, he did bounce back three days later against Arizona with five shutout innings—this is the “baseball randomness” coming into being at work.
Pirates vs. Righties and the Axe
Even though Senzatela cuffed them around the last time they met, the Pirates team does not stand up to right-handed pitchers as well as it might.
- 7th-highest strikeout rate in MLB
- Lowest ISO numbers (a measure of power) among the 30 teams in the majors
- Last in wOBA (weighted on-base average, designed to give production in a single stat)
These are the characteristics of teams that can exploit bad pitching, but their lineups and their abilities against righties, like tell from here on out.
Braxton Ashcraft: A Promising Rookie
On the other end of the spectrum is Braxton Ashcraft, who has been a strong rookie for Pittsburgh. He has a 3.02 ERA in 41.2 innings pitched, and an even better 2.66 FIP. All year long, he has given up only one home run and keeps the ball on the ground with his 50.8% groundball rate.
His fastball averages 96.8 mph, and what makes him tough is his ability to limit hard contact:
- Average exit velocity: 87.1 mph
- Barrel rate: 4%
- Hard-hit rate: 35.7%
In any role, Ashcraft has been steady. In the bullpen, he’s had excellent outings, and as a starter he only allowed two total earned runs over his three starts this year. Moreover, his results are better when he goes on the road, as his corps of relievers sports 20.2% K-BB% and a 2.18 FIP.
Recent Performances:
- vs Reds: 3.1 innings, 1 run, 5 strikeouts
- vs Cubs: 5 innings, 1 run, 4 strikeouts
- vs Rockies (relief at Coors Field): 2 innings, 3 earned runs, 2 strikeouts
Rockies’ Offense vs. Righties
The Colorado Rockies have a tough time against right-handed pitching:
- 2nd-highest strikeout rate in MLB
- 15th in ISO (average power)
- 27th in wOBA (near the bottom in overall production)
Their struggles on the road, combined with these stats, equal tough at-bats against Ashcraft.
Bullpen Comparison
Colorado Rockies Bullpen
- One of the worst in Major League Baseball (29th in FIP)
Pittsburgh Pirates Bullpen
- One of the top in baseball (9th in FIP)
This is a major late-inning advantage for Pittsburgh.
