The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is holding steady as markets await the next shift in monetary policy. According to the big four banks—CBA, NAB, Westpac, and ANZ—Australians may need to wait until November 2025 before seeing the next interest rate cut.
Currently, the cash rate sits at 3.60%, following a 0.25% reduction last month. While inflation shows signs of easing, strong consumer spending and a resilient jobs market mean the RBA is expected to stay cautious during its September 29–30 board meeting.
RBA Holds Firm as Banks Predict November Cut
Despite growing pressure from mortgage holders, economists from the major banks agree that no immediate changes are likely at the September meeting. The RBA is prioritizing inflation control while monitoring wage growth, employment, and global headwinds.
This collective forecast suggests that Australians should prepare for stability in the short term but expect relief later in the year.
CBA’s View: Gradual Easing Ahead
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) anticipates the RBA will remain on hold in September, with November flagged for the next cut.
CBA senior economist Belinda Allen notes:
“This is an RBA Board that appears comfortable with the current inflation outlook and the pace of easing.”
CBA predicts the cash rate will fall to 3.35% by December 2025, highlighting the RBA’s preference for a slow and steady approach to avoid reigniting inflation.
Westpac’s Forecast: Two More Cuts in 2025
Westpac mirrors this cautious outlook but expects a more aggressive easing path overall. Chief economist Luci Ellis explains that services inflation remains sticky, and the RBA will avoid moving too quickly.
Westpac forecasts two more rate cuts this year—one in August and another in November—and additional 0.25% reductions in February and May 2026. Their long-term prediction: the cash rate could fall to 2.85%, well below its peak of 4.35%.
NAB’s Outlook: Patience Required
National Australia Bank (NAB) maintains a data-driven approach. With activity indicators strong and wages still pushing costs higher, NAB economists believe November remains the earliest realistic timeframe for the next cut.
They project the cash rate easing to 3.1% by early 2026, emphasizing that borrowers will need to wait a little longer for meaningful relief.
ANZ’s Forecast: November is Key
ANZ Bank aligns with the broader consensus, citing global uncertainties and domestic pressures as reasons for a slow approach.
Economists Adam Boyton and Adelaide Timbrell forecast:
- 3.4% cash rate by end of 2025
- A dip to 2.9% in 2026
- A slight rebound to 3.1% in 2027
Like the other banks, ANZ expects the next cut in November, followed by a pause to assess the effects of earlier rate hikes.
What This Means for Homeowners and Buyers
For mortgage holders, the predictions offer hope that repayments may ease by the end of 2025, but in the meantime, households will need to manage tighter budgets.
For the property market, limited housing supply and strong buyer demand continue to drive up prices despite higher borrowing costs. Sellers are likely to wait for a friendlier lending environment, which could further intensify competition.
The Bottom Line
The big four banks are united: the RBA is expected to cut rates in November 2025, with further easing likely into 2026.
This signals a cautious but positive outlook for homeowners, buyers, and investors. By staying informed and planning ahead, Australians can position themselves to benefit once the RBA begins its next rate-slashing cycle.
